WENCHANG, CHINA - APRIL 29 2021: A Long March-5B Y2 rocket, carrying the Tianhe module for the Chinese space station, blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Wenchang in south China's Hainan province Thursday, April 29, 2021. Tianhe, with a total length of 16.6 meters and a maximum diameter of 4.2 meters, is the largest spacecraft developed by China. (Photo credit should read Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)

1232587520

WENCHANG, CHINA - APRIL 29 2021: A Long March-5B Y2 rocket, carrying the Tianhe module for the Chinese space station, blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Wenchang in south China's Hainan province Thursday, April 29, 2021. Tianhe, with a total length of 16.6 meters and a maximum diameter of 4.2 meters, is the largest spacecraft developed by China. (Photo credit should read Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)

Photo by: Barcroft Media

Barcroft Media

When and Where is the Chinese Rocket Falling Back to Earth?

What goes up, must come down. On April 28th, a Chinese Long March 5B rocket went up, successfully delivering its payload, a new section of the Tianhe space station, into orbit. But now the 21-ton rocket is coming down, uncontrolled.

May 05, 2021

Most rocket boosters don’t make it into orbit themselves. Instead, their job is to heave their cargo to a fast enough speed to achieve orbit (for low-Earth orbit, about 17,000 mph). Once they release their cargo, mission designers typically send the rocket on a controlled parabolic trajectory, ditching the spent rocket in some isolated patch of ocean--which I’m sure is pretty scary for the creatures of the sea, but not at all dangerous for humans.

With the Long March series, the Chinese seem to have a different strategy. In May of last year, a Long March 5B didn’t come down gracefully but instead ended up (accidentally, or otherwise, we don’t know) in a low orbit of its own. While it was technically orbiting the Earth, the drag from our atmosphere was enough to suck energy from it, eventually bringing it back down to the ground, completely uncontrolled. It missed hitting the United States by a mere 15 minutes but was going so fast that it crashed into Cote d’Ivoire, Africa.

This photo taken on April 23, 2021 shows the Long March 5B rocket, which is expected to launch China's Tianhe space station core module on April 29, at the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in southern China's Hainan province. - China OUT (Photo by STR / China News Service (CNS) / AFP) / China OUT (Photo by STR/China News Service (CNS)/AFP via Getty Images)

1232570710

This photo taken on April 23, 2021 shows the Long March 5B rocket, which is expected to launch China's Tianhe space station core module on April 29, at the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in southern China's Hainan province.

Photo by: STR

STR

This photo taken on April 23, 2021 shows the Long March 5B rocket, which is expected to launch China's Tianhe space station core module on April 29, at the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in southern China's Hainan province.

And now it’s happening again. It’s extremely difficult to predict where this 100-ft-long rocket will land because of the complexity of modeling and predicting an uncontrolled reentry through our atmosphere. The rocket makes a complete circle around the Earth every 90 minutes, and so its possible landing zone includes every hemisphere of our planet.

Hopefully it just crashes into the ocean, which is likely since oceans make up 70% of the surface of the Earth. But it’s not guaranteed–based on current estimates, pieces of the Long March could land anywhere from New York City to Perth, Australia.

Our atmosphere will help us out a lot by burning away pieces of the rocket as it falls down. But for dense, heavy pieces of metal, like the gigantic engine that powers the rocket, will likely remain intact.

WENCHANG, CHINA - APRIL 29 2021: A Long March-5B Y2 rocket, carrying the Tianhe module for the Chinese space station, blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Wenchang in south China's Hainan province Thursday, April 29, 2021. Tianhe, with a total length of 16.6 meters and a maximum diameter of 4.2 meters, is the largest spacecraft developed by China. (Photo credit should read Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images)

1232587427

WENCHANG, CHINA - APRIL 29 2021: A Long March-5B Y2 rocket, carrying the Tianhe module for the Chinese space station, blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Wenchang in south China's Hainan province Thursday, April 29, 2021. Tianhe, with a total length of 16.6 meters and a maximum diameter of 4.2 meters, is the largest spacecraft developed by China.

Photo by: Barcroft Media

Barcroft Media

WENCHANG, CHINA - APRIL 29 2021: A Long March-5B Y2 rocket, carrying the Tianhe module for the Chinese space station, blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Wenchang in south China's Hainan province Thursday, April 29, 2021. Tianhe, with a total length of 16.6 meters and a maximum diameter of 4.2 meters, is the largest spacecraft developed by China.

Last year, the Chinese drew international ire for allowing such a massive object to descend uncontrolled. Prior to the first Long March fiasco, it had been 30 years since anything weighing over 10 tons had been allowed to reenter in an uncontrolled fashion. But it seems that the hopes of the international community that the Chinese would be able to control their rockets have been dashed.

Due to the erratic nature of its orbit, the US Space Force is monitoring the situation but will only be able to give a one or two-hour warning before it lands. The best guess is that it should land this Saturday or Sunday.

Paul M. Sutter

Paul M. Sutter is an astrophysicist at Stony Brook University and the Flatiron Institute, host of Ask a Spaceman and Space Radio, and author of How to Die in Space.

Next Up

What You Need to Know About Blue Origin’s Launch into Space with Billionaire Jeff Bezos

The countdown has begun for Blue Origin’s first crewed spaceflight. On Tuesday, July 20, 2021, at 9:00A ET, Jeff Bezos and three crewmates are lifting off into space from Blue Origin’s Launch Site near Van Horn, Texas. Watch SPACE LAUNCH LIVE: BLUE ORIGIN & JEFF BEZOS GO TO SPACE on Discovery and Science Channels at 8:00A ET or at washingtonpost.com.

Countdown to Launch: NASA and SpaceX Crew-2 Mission

Liftoff set for Friday, April 23, at 5:49A EDT marks the second operational flight of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon. Four space explorers are heading to the International Space Station for a six-month stay. It will take them 23 hours to reach their destination.

Richard Branson of Virgin Galactic Successfully Travels to Space

On Sunday, July 11, around 11:30A ET, Richard Branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic, soared to the edge of space as a passenger aboard Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity. The space plane then landed safely at Spaceport America in New Mexico, making Branson's space tourism dream come true.

Liftoff of NASA and SpaceX Crew-2!

The NASA and SpaceX Crew-2 mission launched on Friday, April 23 at 5:49A ET from the NASA Launch Complex 39A. This historic milestone marks the second operational mission of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon. Onboard was NASA astronaut Shane Kimbrough, NASA astronaut Megan McArthur, ESA astronaut Thomas Pesquet, and JAXA astronaut Akihiko Hoshide. After a 23-hour journey, Crew-2 successfully docked with the International Space Station (ISS) on April 24 at 5:08A ET. Here's everything that happened from launch day to the Crew-2's arrival at the ISS. (Updated April 24, 2021)

Check Out NASA’s DART Mission

It’s like “Armageddon” but in real life.

This All-Civilian Space Mission Wants to Achieve the Highest Human Orbit Ever

Last year marked a fascinating turning point in the history of spaceflight. For the first time ever, more civilians went into space than professional ones. The private companies Virgin Galactic, Blue Origins, and SpaceX all offer seats for sale, with missions as brief as just a few minutes to as long as a few days.

William Shatner Becomes Oldest Man to Travel to Space After Successful Blue Origin Space Flight

On the morning of October 13, William Shatner joined the crew of New Shepard for its second crewed flight, NS-18. Due to a few holds, the scheduled 10A liftoff was delayed by about 50 minutes from Blue Origin's Launch Site One in Texas. Despite the delays, liftoff and touchdown went off without a hitch, making Star Trek star William Shatner the oldest man to go to space.

NASA Has a New Supersonic Jet and It’s Super-Quiet

There’s more to NASA than space. The agency’s full acronym stands for National Aeronautics and Space Administration. I’ve covered plenty of interesting stories in the space sector, so it’s time to the aeronautics side some love too.

Blue Origin's First Crewed Spaceflight Has Successful Liftoff and Landing

This morning, on July 20, 2021, Blue Origin's first crewed spaceflight was a success! Congrats to Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos and three crewmates, who lifted off into space from Blue Origin’s Launch Site near Van Horn, Texas. Here's the play-by-play of the New Shepard's approximitely 10 minute flight from launch to capsule landing, which looked picture perfect.

William Shatner is going where no 90-year-old has gone before

The Star Trek star will become the oldest person to go to space when he launches aboard a Blue Origin rocket on Wednesday, October 13. Watch live coverage on Space Launch LIVE: Shatner in Space on Discovery and Science Channel starting at 8:30A ET with liftoff scheduled for 10A ET.

Related To: