1188964207

Photo by: Julie Andrews / 500px

Julie Andrews / 500px

What Could Delay the Historic SpaceX and NASA Launch?

Detailed planning and test after test do not always mean smooth sailing in space flight.

May 19, 2020

Everybody who’s anybody is waiting with gleeful anticipation for May 27th. If all goes as planned, a rocket will carry two astronauts to the International Space Station, launching from Cape Canaveral. This would be the first crewed launch from American soil since the retirement of the Space Shuttle in 2011. And an added bonus: the rocket and capsule were designed and built by the private spaceflight company SpaceX, another first. Sweet.

But like I said, if all goes as planned.

SpaceX and NASA have already performed so many tests that “a lot” seems inadequate. The joint efforts of the private company and the space agency are about as ready as they can possibly be: testing individual components over and over, checking integrations to an overwhelming degree, and performing uncrewed (as in, empty) test launches.

But even with all the I’s dotted and T’s crossed, with the rocket parts polished and astronauts in isolation, delays can still – and usually do - happen.

The Weather

Storm clouds is seen from a distance. Photographed in Florida, USA.

858060854

Storm clouds is seen from a distance. Photographed in Florida, USA.

Photo by: Zen Rial

Zen Rial

And the culprit is usually the weather. Obviously thunderstorm or encroaching hurricane (this is Florida, after all) will scrub a launch. But NASA prefers as calm, cool, and collected weather as possible. For example: no rain--at all. No chilly days (as in, below 48 degrees Fahrenheit)--at all. No wind (as in, faster than 21 mph from the northeast)--at all.

For one example (among many), in 1986, the Challenger mission exploded during launch as a result of a single rubber O-ring becoming too brittle during frigid weather.

28th January 1986:  An abstract smoke pattern after the space shuttle Challenger explosion, Kennedy Space Center, Florida.  (Photo by Dave Welcher/Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

3231420

28th January 1986: An abstract smoke pattern after the space shuttle Challenger explosion, Kennedy Space Center, Florida.

Photo by: Dave Welcher

Dave Welcher

28th January 1986: An abstract smoke pattern after the space shuttle Challenger explosion, Kennedy Space Center, Florida.

And especially no lightning. NASA hates lightning, probably because rockets hate lightning. They are, after all, giant towers of metal encasing specially-designed circuitry and tens of thousands of gallons of flammable rocket fuel. If there’s a lightning strike within 10 miles of the launch site and flight path, it’s a no-go.

Technical Difficulties

CAPE CANAVERAL, FL - MAY 16:  NASA space shuttle Endeavour lifts off from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center on May 16, 2011 in Cape Canaveral, Florida. After 20 years, 25 missions and more than 115 million miles in space, Endeavour is on its final flight to the International Space Station before being retired and donated to the California Science Center in Los Angeles. Capt. Mark E. Kelly, Gabrielle Giffords's husband, will lead mission STS-134 as it delivers the Express Logistics Carrier-3 (ELC-3) and the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-2) to the International Space Station.  (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

114209389

NASA space shuttle Endeavour lifts off from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center on May 16, 2011 in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Photo by: Joe Raedle

Joe Raedle

NASA space shuttle Endeavour lifts off from Launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center on May 16, 2011 in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

But weather isn’t the only thing capable of turning May 27th into just another bland, humid day at the Cape. Rockets are some of the most complex machines ever devised by human beings (and in the case of the Space Shuttle, arguably the most complex machine ever devised by human beings). In other words, there’s a lot to potentially go haywire.

Sure, all the pre-flight tests have come out swimmingly. But checks will continue until the moment of liftoff itself, and if one little indicator light flips from green to red, an abort will be called automatically. Back in 2009, the Space Shuttle Endeavour was delayed twice by hydrogen gas leaks (and three times by weather). The last thing anyone wants is a repeat of that with two astronauts on top.

The Astronauts

SpaceX founder Elon Musk (2nd L) addresses the media alongside NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine (L), and astronauts Doug Hurley (2nd R) and Bob Behnken (R), during a press conference announcing new developments of the Crew Dragon reusable spacecraft, at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California on October 10, 2019. (Photo by Philip Pacheco / AFP) (Photo by PHILIP PACHECO/AFP via Getty Images)

1175168649

SpaceX founder Elon Musk (2nd L) addresses the media alongside NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine (L), and astronauts Doug Hurley (2nd R) and Bob Behnken (R), during a press conference announcing new developments of the Crew Dragon reusable spacecraft, at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California on October 10, 2019.

Photo by: PHILIP PACHECO

PHILIP PACHECO

SpaceX founder Elon Musk (2nd L) addresses the media alongside NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine (L), and astronauts Doug Hurley (2nd R) and Bob Behnken (R), during a press conference announcing new developments of the Crew Dragon reusable spacecraft, at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California on October 10, 2019.

Speaking of the astronauts, for them it’s not just a matter of crossing their fingers and hoping everything goes okay. They will have at their disposal the ability to eject their crew capsule a safe distance away from an exploding rocket – as SpaceX successfully tested this past January (which did involve intentionally blowing up a rocket in the most awesome way possible).

And let’s just hope the astronauts, Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, don’t get sick. NASA usually isolates their astronauts in the weeks leading up to a launch anyway (even a mild cold or flu can be debilitating in the critical operation of a rocket flying into space). In 1968, Apollo astronaut Wally Schirra got a cold – and while the mission was a success, it wasn’t a walk in the park for Wally. But the novel coronavirus pandemic is forcing the space agency to take extra precautions, keeping Behnken and Hurley in extreme isolation until this (hopefully) historic day.

Paul M. Sutter is an astrophysicist at Stony Brook University and the Flatiron Institute, host of Ask a Spaceman and Space Radio, and author of How to Die in Space.

Next Up

Quiz: Test Your Space Exploration Knowledge

Ahead of the historic May 27th NASA and SpaceX crewed space launch, test your space exploration knowledge!

NASA and SpaceX are Going on a Date, and We're All Invited

Save the date--On May 27th, if everything goes as planned, a rocket will launch from Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. Watch SPACE LAUNCH LIVE: AMERICA RETURNS TO SPACE on Discovery and Science Channel starting at 2P ET.

NASA and SpaceX to Launch a Crewed Mission to ISS in May 2020

For the first time since its conception 18 years ago, SpaceX, along with NASA, will launch a crewed mission to space.

Everything You Need to Know About NASA & SpaceX's Historic Launch Day

Get the play-by-play on everything that happened from launch preparations and tests to liftoff and dock with the ISS. (Updated 5/31/20)

William Shatner is going where no 90-year-old has gone before

The Star Trek star will become the oldest person to go to space when he launches aboard a Blue Origin rocket on Wednesday, October 13. Watch live coverage on Space Launch LIVE: Shatner in Space on Discovery and Science Channel starting at 8:30A ET with liftoff scheduled for 10A ET.

We Have Liftoff: Congratulations to NASA and SpaceX

Here's to NASA, SpaceX, Astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, and all of the engineers, scientists, and staff involved with the Saturday, May 30th historical launch.

Let’s Look for Water on the Moon

NASA is headed to the moon, but this time it's in search of water. Astrophysicist Paul M Sutter shares what this means and why it's important.

India’s Space Agency is Going Big… By Going Small

Astrophysicist Paul M. Sutter shares the latest in the world of rocket launches and what India’s SSLV is all about.

All Aboard the Starliner!

Boeing’s Starliner capsule launched on Friday. Astrophysicist Paul M Sutter has everything you need to know about the Starliner and its mission.

SpaceX vs. the Universe

Fans of space are having a tough time picking sides over a recent controversy between SpaceX and astronomers. But what's the big debate all about? Astrophysicist Paul M. Sutter digs into both perspectives.

Related To: